Investors Are Playing With Fire
Updated: Aug 25
Investing during a time like this is dangerous because it's difficult to predict how the Federal Reserve and Congress will act to support the markets and businesses alike. The golden rule of investing from the past has always been "don't bet against the Fed." Which simply means don't bet against the US federal government, because they will spare no expense bailing out the economy and their markets.
The issue that stands today is that investors are trying to predict the Fed's actions before they occur, which can be brutally difficult in a political climate such as this one. The Federal Reserve stays apolitical; however, the actions of Congress in stalling a stimulus effort is entirely political. The inability of Congress to deliver further stimulus checks or unemployment benefits shows a complete system failure on behalf of the US government. The dueling houses of lawmakers, a need for majority vote, and evident loopholes such as the Filibuster make it nearly impossible to act quickly, especially during a crisis.
The stock and bond markets can receive stimulus directly from the Federal Reserve which operates independently of Congress. Investors will be trying to predict the amounts of QE (quantitative easing) that will be flowing into the markets. QE is the Fed's way of inflating markets and creating artificially high prices. It's become a much more common occurrence, and during the Pandemic it has been going non-stop.
Investors trying to generate accurate valuations for companies today are playing with fire. The Fed has warned several times that the economy that follows the Pandemic will be drastically different than the one we have now/the one we've always had. There are significant changes to come, one of which will most likely be tethering or pegging the US dollar to a Fed Reserve-backed cryptocurrency; a digital US dollar.