Volatility is Back As Uncertainty Grows
Updated: Aug 21
There are legitimate reasons for why the bond market should scare investors in stocks, but they're most definitely being overhyped. The biggest problem with the equity markets currently is that right now the S&P 500 trades at $3,900 and the day before the Pandemic began on February 14th, 2020, the S&P 500 traded at $3,380. It had never even reached $3,400 in its history. And now, after gaining 18% during a Pandemic in which American businesses have been catastrophically damaged, the S&P trades at nearly an all-time high. There's something wrong here.
So the volatility you're seeing in the financial markets is essentially investors worrying that the party is over, and that the irrationality is going to be leaving soon. The S&P is just one example, the bubble has grown across nearly all asset classes with the most notable increases seen in common stock equity, real estate, and private company valuations.
The best way to position your equity portfolio for the year is to invest into broad ETFs and escape the sector-based volatility. I normally detest ETFs and overly diversified funds, but the uncertainty we are facing currently is unprecedented. Until valuations of companies can be made accurately and stimulus/interest rates become more predictable, there is an unnecessary amount of risk surrounding active investing.
It's important to minimize the risk as much as possible, but still look forward. For instance, if there is a particular sector or business that you think will rebound faster than others, then begin to position yourself accordingly. Always have a specific reason for each investment you make - and write it down.